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Muhammad Ishtiaq, Xiaosong Wang, Aqil Inam, Jallu Krishnaiah, Sung Gyu Kang, and N. S. Reddy, Modeling of martensite start temperature in low-carbon steels using artificial neural networks, Int. J. Miner. Metall. Mater., (2026). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12613-026-3446-1
Muhammad Ishtiaq, Xiaosong Wang, Aqil Inam, Jallu Krishnaiah, Sung Gyu Kang, and N. S. Reddy, Modeling of martensite start temperature in low-carbon steels using artificial neural networks, Int. J. Miner. Metall. Mater., (2026). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12613-026-3446-1
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基于人工神经网络的低碳钢马氏体开始转变温度建模

摘要: 准确预测马氏体开始转变温度(Ms),对于理解钢的相变规律及优化热处理工艺至关重要。然而,目前估算Ms常用的经验公式,因形式简化、适用成分区间有限,预测效果往往存在局限。本研究针对低碳钢(碳质量分数<0.30%),系统评估20种应用广泛的经验公式,并与人工神经网络(ANN)模型开展对比。研究整理包含15种合金元素、共285组钢成分数据的数据集,其中171组样本用于模型训练,114组用于测试。经优化的人工神经网络结构为15–10–10–1,即15个输入神经元、2个隐层(每层10个神经元)、1个输出神经元;该模型在测试集上的平均绝对误差(MAE)为65.49 K,相较于预测效果最优的经验公式,误差降低35%–50%。对训练完成的神经网络模型开展敏感性分析,所得各合金元素对Ms的影响规律与冶金理论一致。研究结果明确了各合金元素的相对贡献及其耦合作用对低碳钢马氏体相变行为的影响。通过淬火–配分热处理实验验证,成功获得预期的马氏体与残余奥氏体组织。

 

Modeling of martensite start temperature in low-carbon steels using artificial neural networks

Abstract: Reliable prediction of the martensite start temperature (Ms) is essential for understanding phase transformations and optimizing heat treatment processes in steels. However, empirical relations commonly used for Ms estimation are often limited by simplified formulations and restricted compositional ranges. In this study, 20 widely used empirical equations are systematically evaluated and compared with an artificial neural network (ANN) model for low-carbon steels (C content < 0.30wt%). A dataset comprising 285 steel compositions with 15 alloying elements was compiled, with 171 samples used for training and 114 for testing. The optimized ANN architecture (15–10–10–1), representing 15 input neurons, two hidden layers with 10 neurons each, and one output neuron, achieved a test-set mean absolute error (MAE) of 65.49 K, representing a 35%–50% reduction relative to the best-performing empirical equations. Sensitivity analysis of the trained ANN model further revealed metallurgically consistent effects of alloying elements on Ms. The results identify the relative contributions of alloying elements and their combined influence on martensitic transformation behavior in low-carbon steels. Experimental validation through quenching-and-partitioning heat treatment produced the expected martensite and retained austenite microstructures.

 

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