Cite this article as:

Feixiang Dai, Lu Zhang, Xiangjun Bao, Xiaojing Yang, and Guang Chen, Hybrid model for predicting and optimizing energy consumption in converter processes based on feature selection and interpretability, Int. J. Miner. Metall. Mater., (2026). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12613-026-3459-9
Feixiang Dai, Lu Zhang, Xiangjun Bao, Xiaojing Yang, and Guang Chen, Hybrid model for predicting and optimizing energy consumption in converter processes based on feature selection and interpretability, Int. J. Miner. Metall. Mater., (2026). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12613-026-3459-9
引用本文 PDF XML SpringerLink

基于特征选择与可解释性的转炉工序能耗预测-优化混合模型

摘要: 针对转炉工序能耗受多因素耦合影响,传统预测模型存在特征冗余、可解释性不足,现有能耗优化方法过度依赖经验决策的问题,本文提出一种融合SHAP可解释分析、支持向量回归(SVR)与灰狼优化算法(GWO)的转炉工序能耗预测与优化方法。首先提取转炉炼钢过程铁水成分、铁水温度、废钢质量等样本特征,采用箱线图剔除异常样本并完成标准化预处理;结合最大互信息系数(MIC)、皮尔逊相关系数(PCC)与SHAP开展特征重要性排序,通过前向筛选得到最优7维特征子集;采用网格搜索结合k折交叉验证完成SVR模型超参数寻优。测试集结果表明,模型均方根误差(RMSE)、平均绝对误差(MAE)、平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)分别为3.12 kg/t、2.51 kg/t、5.98%,预测精度良好。利用SHAP完成模型全局与局部可解释分析,选取废钢质量、铁水温度、石灰质量作为关键调控因子,构建基于GWO的能耗优化模型。优化结果显示,转炉工序吨钢标准煤能耗可降低2.63 kg/t。该模型兼顾预测精度与可解释能力,能够有效降低转炉工序能耗,可为转炉炼钢现场节能调控提供决策支撑。

 

Hybrid model for predicting and optimizing energy consumption in converter processes based on feature selection and interpretability

Abstract: To address the issues that energy consumption in the converter process is affected by multiple coupled factors, traditional prediction models suffer from feature redundancy and insufficient interpretability, and existing energy consumption optimization methods rely heavily on empirical decision-making, this paper proposes an energy consumption prediction and optimization method integrating SHapley additive exPlanations (SHAP), support vector regression (SVR), and grey wolf optimization (GWO). First, sample features including hot metal composition, temperature, and mass of scrap steel are extracted from the converter steelmaking process. Outliers are removed using box plots, followed by standardized preprocessing. Feature importance is then ranked via the maximum mutual information coefficient (MIC), Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC), and SHAP. Forward selection is employed to identify the optimal 7-feature subset, while grid search combined with k-fold cross-validation is used to optimize the hyperparameters of the SVR model. Experimental results show high predictive accuracy, with the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) on the test set reaching 3.12 kg/t, 2.51 kg/t, and 5.98%, respectively. Further global and local interpretability analyses are conducted using SHAP, leading to the development of a GWO-based energy optimization model with mass of scrap steel, hot metal temperature, and mass of lime as key regulatory factors. Optimization results indicate that the optimized energy consumption (in standard coal equivalent) is reduced by 2.63 kg/t. This model effectively reduces process energy consumption and provides decision support for energy-saving regulation in converter steelmaking, featuring both high accuracy and strong interpretability.

 

/

返回文章
返回