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Lingru Meng, Nan Wang, Xiaohui Zhang, Lei Fang, and Yonghui Liu, Multistep time-series prediction model for blast furnace permeability index based on deep learning, Int. J. Miner. Metall. Mater., (2026). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12613-026-3471-0
Lingru Meng, Nan Wang, Xiaohui Zhang, Lei Fang, and Yonghui Liu, Multistep time-series prediction model for blast furnace permeability index based on deep learning, Int. J. Miner. Metall. Mater., (2026). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12613-026-3471-0
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基于深度学习的高炉透气性指数时间序列多步预测模型

摘要: 高炉透气性指数是表征气固两相流动状态的关键参数,其准确预测对高炉稳定运行具有重要意义。针对透气性指数具有较强时序依赖性,本文提出一种基于贝叶斯优化时间融合Transformer(Bayesian-TFT)的深度学习框架,用于透气性指数多步预测。首先,对高炉运行数据进行预处理,并结合Spearman相关系数和最大信息系数进行特征筛选,构建多步预测数据集。其次,建立时间融合Transformer多步预测模型,并采用贝叶斯优化方法对模型超参数进行寻优,以提高模型预测性能。进一步结合滚动窗口策略和10折交叉验证,增强模型在复杂工况下的泛化能力,在可接受的误差范围内实现了97.204%和98.454%的预测准确率。最后,通过可解释性分析识别影响透气性指数的主要特征,为透气性指数的预测与调控提供依据。研究结果表明,所构建方法实现了对透气性指数提前一小时的多步预测,为高炉运行状态监测和智能调控提供数据支持。

 

Multistep time-series prediction model for blast furnace permeability index based on deep learning

Abstract: The permeability index of a blast furnace is a key parameter that reflects the gas–solid flow balance, and its accurate prediction is crucial for ensuring stable furnace operation. To address this inherent strong time-series dependency, this paper proposes a deep-learning framework based on a Bayesian-optimized temporal fusion transformer (Bayesian-TFT) model for multistep permeability index prediction. First, a high-quality dataset suitable for multistep prediction was constructed using preprocessing techniques integrated with feature selection methods, including Spearman and maximal information coefficient, thereby laying a robust foundation for model training. Second, a multistep prediction model based on the Bayesian-TFT was developed, wherein Bayesian optimization was employed to refine the TFT hyperparameters, enhancing the efficiency of training convergence. Subsequently, a rolling window strategy combined with 10-fold cross-validation was adopted to improve the generalization capability of the model under complex operating conditions, achieving the prediction accuracies of 97.204% and 98.454% within acceptable error ranges. Finally, interpretability analysis was conducted to identify the core control parameters, providing a basis for the predictive regulation of permeability. This study enabled a one-hour-ahead multistep prediction of the permeability index, offering a novel approach for intelligent blast furnace ironmaking and demonstrating significant engineering value.

 

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