Cite this article as:

Peng Li, Dongping Zhan, Bingqian Huang, Sheng Chang, Zhouhua Jiang, Huishu Zhang, and Pengchao Li, Feature attention model attention for basic oxygen furnace endpoint temperature prediction, Int. J. Miner. Metall. Mater., (2026). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12613-026-3487-5
Peng Li, Dongping Zhan, Bingqian Huang, Sheng Chang, Zhouhua Jiang, Huishu Zhang, and Pengchao Li, Feature attention model attention for basic oxygen furnace endpoint temperature prediction, Int. J. Miner. Metall. Mater., (2026). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12613-026-3487-5
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基于特征注意力与模型注意力的转炉终点温度预测

摘要: 准确预测转炉炼钢终点温度对于稳定产品质量、优化生产组织和降低操作风险具有重要意义。工业炼钢数据包含多种工艺变量,工况间差异明显,传统集成学习方法通常以固定权重组合基模型,难以根据单个炉次的特征调整预测策略。针对这一问题,本文提出特征注意力与模型注意力(FAMA)框架,对异构基模型进行样本自适应融合。特征注意力模块学习工艺变量之间的非线性关联并形成高维特征表示;模型注意力模块通过交叉注意力利用特征表示评估不同基模型在当前样本上的可靠性,动态生成融合权重。在包含50000炉次的工业数据集上,FAMA的平均绝对误差为0.2173°C,均方根误差为1.1080°C,决定系数为0.9795;与最优堆叠模型相比,平均绝对误差降低89.9%。消融试验显示,去除特征注意力或模型注意力后,决定系数分别降至0.8483和0.1278,表明两个模块共同作用对预测性能至关重要。对于终点温度低于1620°C的低温样本,FAMA能够较好地跟踪温度变化,而部分传统方法出现系统性高估。这种表现与可能的喷溅相关热损失所对应的间接特征一致,但不能视为对喷溅事件的直接识别。研究还在另一钢厂的独立数据上进行了跨厂验证,为方法在不同数据条件下的适用性提供了补充证据。该框架为转炉终点温度预测和工业表格数据的自适应集成建模提供了参考。

 

Feature attention model attention for basic oxygen furnace endpoint temperature prediction

Abstract: Accurate prediction of endpoint temperature in basic oxygen furnace (BOF) steelmaking is essential for production optimization and quality control. Traditional ensemble and deep learning methods rely on fixed-weight aggregation strategies that fail to adapt to operational heterogeneity in tabular steelmaking data. This study proposes a feature attention model attention (FAMA) framework enabling sample-adaptive fusion of heterogeneous base models through dual attention mechanisms. FAMA employs feature attention to extract high-dimensional representations and model attention to compute sample-adaptive fusion weights via cross-attention, directly evaluating model reliability in feature space and enabling differentiated fusion strategies. Experiments on 50000 industrial heats demonstrate that FAMA achieves mean absolute error (MAE) = 0.2173°C, root mean squared error (RMSE) = 1.1080°C, and coefficient of determination (R2) = 0.9795, reducing MAE by 89.9% compared to stacking baselines. Ablation studies confirm the synergistic effect of dual attention modules. Tests on abnormal conditions show that FAMA captures low-temperature abnormal patterns potentially associated with slopping-related heat-loss behavior through latent signal mining, achieving accurate predictions where traditional methods systematically overestimate temperatures. These results validate FAMA’s capability for intelligent steelmaking decision support and offer a novel paradigm for tabular data modeling.

 

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