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Volume 31 Issue 12
Dec.  2024
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文章导航 >  矿物冶金与材料学报（英文）  > 2024  >  31(12): 2657-2669
Zicheng Xin, Jiangshan Zhang, Kaixiang Peng, Junguo Zhang, Chunhui Zhang, Jun Wu, Bo Zhang, and Qing Liu, Explainable machine learning model for predicting molten steel temperature in the LF refining process, Int. J. Miner. Metall. Mater., 31(2024), No. 12, pp. 2657-2669. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12613-024-2950-4
Cite this article as:
Zicheng Xin, Jiangshan Zhang, Kaixiang Peng, Junguo Zhang, Chunhui Zhang, Jun Wu, Bo Zhang, and Qing Liu, Explainable machine learning model for predicting molten steel temperature in the LF refining process, Int. J. Miner. Metall. Mater., 31(2024), No. 12, pp. 2657-2669. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12613-024-2950-4
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研究论文

基于可解释性机器学习的LF精炼钢水温度预测模型

  • 1)

    北京科技大学绿色低碳钢铁冶金全国重点实验室, 北京 100083, 中国

  • 2)

    北京科技大学自动化学院, 北京 100083, 中国

  • 3)

    河钢股份有限公司唐山分公司, 唐山 063000, 中国

  • 4)

    宝钢集团新疆八一钢铁有限公司, 乌鲁木齐, 830022, 中国

  • 5)

    吕梁建龙实业有限公司, 吕梁, 032100, 中国



  • 通讯作者:

    张江山    E-mail: qliu@ustb.edu.cn

    刘青    E-mail: zjsustb@163.com

文章亮点

  • (1) 构建了灰狼算法优化轻量梯度提升机的LF精炼钢水温度预测模型
  • (2) 利用树形结构可视化揭示了LF精炼钢水温度预测模型的学习/决策过程
  • (3) 基于SHAP分析明确了不同输入变量对钢水温度的影响程度
  • 钢包炉（LF）精炼过程中，钢水温度的精准预测对钢水质量和炼钢成本的控制具有重要影响。当前针对钢水温度预测模型开展了大量研究工作，然而，大多数研究学者主要关注预测模型精度的提高，忽视了预测模型的可解释性。基于此，本文首先采用极端梯度提升树（XGBoost）和轻量梯度提升机（LGBM），融合贝叶斯优化和灰狼优化（GWO）来建立LF精炼钢水温度预测模型。然后，通过比较不同模型的性能评价指标，得出了运用不同超参数优化方法获得的最优XGBoost模型和LGBM模型。结果表明，在钢水温度预测中GWO-LGBM模型性能优于其他模型，且在±5°C的误差范围内，模型预测精度达到89.35%。最后，利用树形结构可视化和SHAP分析，揭示了模型的学习/决策过程，明确了不同输入变量对钢水温度的影响程度。该研究有利于操作人员更好地了解输入变量对预测结果的影响规律，从而实现模型的可靠应用和调试，指导操作人员对模型参数进行调整。
    • Research Article

    Explainable machine learning model for predicting molten steel temperature in the LF refining process

    + Author Affiliations
      Abstract
    • Accurate prediction of molten steel temperature in the ladle furnace (LF) refining process has an important influence on the quality of molten steel and the control of steelmaking cost. Extensive research on establishing models to predict molten steel temperature has been conducted. However, most researchers focus solely on improving the accuracy of the model, neglecting its explainability. The present study aims to develop a high-precision and explainable model with improved reliability and transparency. The eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and light gradient boosting machine (LGBM) were utilized, along with bayesian optimization and grey wolf optimization (GWO), to establish the prediction model. Different performance evaluation metrics and graphical representations were applied to compare the optimal XGBoost and LGBM models obtained through varying hyperparameter optimization methods with the other models. The findings indicated that the GWO-LGBM model outperformed other methods in predicting molten steel temperature, with a high prediction accuracy of 89.35% within the error range of ±5°C. The model’s learning/decision process was revealed, and the influence degree of different variables on the molten steel temperature was clarified using the tree structure visualization and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis. Consequently, the explainability of the optimal GWO-LGBM model was enhanced, providing reliable support for prediction results.
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