A long campaign life of blast furnaces is heavily linked to the existence of a protective layer in their hearths. In this work, we conducted dissection studies and investigated damage in blast furnace hearths to estimate the formation mechanism of the protective layer. The results illustrate that a significant amount of graphite phase was trapped within the hearth protective layer. Furthermore, on the basis of the thermodynamic and kinetic calculations of the graphite precipitation process, a precipitation potential index related to the formation of the graphite-rich protective layer was proposed to characterize the formation ability of this layer. We determined that, under normal operating conditions, the precipitation of graphite phase from hot metal was thermodynamically possible. Among elements that exist in hot metal, C, Si, and P favor graphite precipitation, whereas Mn and Cr inhibit this process. Moreover, at the same hot-face temperature, an increase of carbon concentration in hot metal can shorten the precipitation time. Finally, the results suggest that measures such as reducing the hot-face temperature and increasing the degree of carbon saturation in hot metal are critically important to improve the precipitation potential index.