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Pengxin Zhao, Kechao Li, Nana Zhou, Qiusong Chen, Min Zhou, and Chongchong Qi, Enhanced prediction of occurrence forms of heavy metals in tailings: A systematic comparison of machine learning methods and model integration, Int. J. Miner. Metall. Mater., (2025). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12613-025-3136-4
Pengxin Zhao, Kechao Li, Nana Zhou, Qiusong Chen, Min Zhou, and Chongchong Qi, Enhanced prediction of occurrence forms of heavy metals in tailings: A systematic comparison of machine learning methods and model integration, Int. J. Miner. Metall. Mater., (2025). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12613-025-3136-4
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尾矿中重金属赋存形态的增强预测:机器学习方法及其模型集成的系统比较

摘要: 采矿和矿石冶炼产生的尾矿是土壤污染的主要来源。了解尾矿中重金属(HMs)的赋存形态对土壤修复与可持续发展至关重要。鉴于传统实验室顺序提取法测定重金属形态存在流程复杂、耗时较长的局限性,亟需建立快速精准的识别方法。本研究创新性地采用机器学习技术,构建了重金属赋存形态的通用经验预测模型。通过整合尾矿组分信息、重金属元素特性及顺序提取步骤等输入特征,实现了七种重金属赋存形态百分含量的定量预测。经超参数优化与模型比较,极端梯度提升(XGBoost)、梯度提升决策树(GBDT)和类别提升(CatBoost)模型表现最优,测试集决定系数(R2)均超过0.859。特征重要性分析表明,电负性是最关键的影响因子(平均重要性0.4522)。随后,采用堆叠集成方法进一步提升了机器学习模型预测重金属赋存形态的能力,使R2值提高至0.879。本研究不仅建立了尾矿重金属赋存形态的稳健预测体系,更为尾矿环境风险评估与资源化利用提供了重要技术支撑。

 

Enhanced prediction of occurrence forms of heavy metals in tailings: A systematic comparison of machine learning methods and model integration

Abstract: Tailings produced by mining and ore smelting are a major source of soil pollution. Understanding the speciation of heavy metals (HMs) in tailings is essential for soil remediation and sustainable development. Given the complex and time-consuming nature of traditional sequential laboratory extraction methods for determining the forms of HMs in tailings, a rapid and precise identification approach is urgently required. To address this issue, a general empirical prediction method for HM occurrence was developed using machine learning (ML). The compositional information of the tailings, properties of the HMs, and sequential extraction steps were used as inputs to calculate the percentages of the seven forms of HMs. After the models were tuned and compared, extreme gradient boosting, gradient boosting decision tree, and categorical boosting methods were found to be the top three performing ML models, with the coefficient of determination (R2) values on the testing set exceeding 0.859. Feature importance analysis for these three optimal models indicated that electronegativity was the most important factor affecting the occurrence of HMs, with an average feature importance of 0.4522. The subsequent use of stacking as a model integration method enabled the ability of the ML models to predict HM occurrence forms to be further improved, and resulting in an increase of R2 to 0.879. Overall, this study developed a robust technique for predicting the occurrence forms in tailings and provides an important reference for the environmental assessment and recycling of tailings.

 

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