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Lihua Zhao, Shuai Yang, Yongzhao Xu, Zhongliang Wang, Xin Liu, and Yanping Bao, Factor analysis and machine learning for predicting endpoint carbon content in converter steelmaking, Int. J. Miner. Metall. Mater., 32(2025), No. 10, pp.2469-2482. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12613-025-3145-3
Lihua Zhao, Shuai Yang, Yongzhao Xu, Zhongliang Wang, Xin Liu, and Yanping Bao, Factor analysis and machine learning for predicting endpoint carbon content in converter steelmaking, Int. J. Miner. Metall. Mater., 32(2025), No. 10, pp.2469-2482. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12613-025-3145-3
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利用因子分析和机器学习实现转炉终点碳含量预测

摘要: 转炉终点碳含量对钢产品的质量至关重要,其精确预测是减少合金消耗,提高冶炼效率的有效手段。但目前大多数学者只通过改变方法来提高模型命中率,而忽略了输入参数对精度的影响程度。为了研究这个问题,本文首先运用因子分析(FA)和基于改进粒子群(IPSO)优化的支持向量机(SVM)建立转炉多钢种终点碳含量预测模型。通过分析转炉冶炼过程中影响终点碳含量的因素,确定21项输入参数,再通过因子分析(FA)降低数据的维度并应用于预测模型。结果表明,FA–IPSO–SVM模型的性能优于已有研究中的一些方法,如孪生支持向量回归(TSVR)、支持向量机(SVM),且在±0.01%、±0.015%、±0.02%误差范围内的命中率分别为89.59%、96.21%、98.74%。最后,根据依次去除输入参数得到的预测结果,将输入参数按影响预测精度程度的不同分为高影响类(5%–7%)、中影响类(2%–5%)、低影响类(0%–2%),可以为以后终点碳含量预测模型的输入参数选择提供参考。

 

Factor analysis and machine learning for predicting endpoint carbon content in converter steelmaking

Abstract: The endpoint carbon content in the converter is critical for the quality of steel products, and accurately predicting this parameter is an effective way to reduce alloy consumption and improve smelting efficiency. However, most scholars currently focus on modifying methods to enhance model accuracy, while overlooking the extent to which input parameters influence accuracy. To address this issue, in this study, a prediction model for the endpoint carbon content in the converter was developed using factor analysis (FA) and support vector machine (SVM) optimized by improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO). Analysis of the factors influencing the endpoint carbon content during the converter smelting process led to the identification of 21 input parameters. Subsequently, FA was used to reduce the dimensionality of the data and applied to the prediction model. The results demonstrate that the performance of the FA–IPSO–SVM model surpasses several existing methods, such as twin support vector regression and support vector machine. The model achieves hit rates of 89.59%, 96.21%, and 98.74% within error ranges of ±0.01%, ±0.015%, and ±0.02%, respectively. Finally, based on the prediction results obtained by sequentially removing input parameters, the parameters were classified into high influence (5%–7%), medium influence (2%–5%), and low influence (0–2%) categories according to their varying degrees of impact on prediction accuracy. This classification provides a reference for selecting input parameters in future prediction models for endpoint carbon content.

 

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