Cite this article as:

Zhen Zhang, Jue Tang, Quan Shi, Mansheng Chu, Mingyu Wang, and Zhifeng Zhang, Comprehensive status evaluation and prediction of blast furnace based on cascade system and combined model, Int. J. Miner. Metall. Mater., 32(2025), No. 12, pp.2942-2957. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12613-025-3179-6
Zhen Zhang, Jue Tang, Quan Shi, Mansheng Chu, Mingyu Wang, and Zhifeng Zhang, Comprehensive status evaluation and prediction of blast furnace based on cascade system and combined model, Int. J. Miner. Metall. Mater., 32(2025), No. 12, pp.2942-2957. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12613-025-3179-6
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基于级联体系和组合模型的高炉综合状态评价与预测

摘要: 综合状态的好坏是影响高炉经济、质量和寿命最重要的因素之一,但高炉综合状态存在“黑箱”和“不可预知”性质。针对此高炉特性,本研究提出了一种基于级联体系和组合模型的高炉综合状态评级与预测方法。首先分析高炉参数特性,融合主观和客观赋权方法,构建了AHP(analytic hierarchy process)-CV(coefficient of variation)-EWM(entropy weight method)-ICG(impart combinatorial games)的双级联评价体系。实现了多类别状态(原料、煤气流、炉体、炉缸和渣铁)的分数评价。基于五类状态数据升级到综合状态的定量化评价,不同类别的权重分别为0.22、 0.15、0.22、0.21和0.20。根据数据分析,综合状态评分结果与现场生产日志具有较高的匹配性。然后基于高炉冶炼周期,应用MIC方法选择了100个与综合状态最相关变量作为输入参数。应用BiLSTM(bidirectional long short-term memory)和CatBoost(categorical boosting)设计了一种综合状态评分组合预测模型。测试结果表明,组合模型相较于BiLSTM或CatBoost,MAE平均降低0.275,命中率平均升高5.65个百分点。当误差范围在±2.5,组合模型预测下一小时综合评分的命中率达到91.66%,它的高精度可以令现场满意。应用SHAP(SHapley Additive exPlanations)和回归分析深入挖掘了高炉参数与综合状态评分之间的量化关系。例如当碱金属在3500~4150范围内增大100kg·h−1,综合评分下降1.1;炉底中心温度增大10°C,综合评分上升0.45,这极大的增强了评价与预测过程的可解释性与实际吻合度。研究应用有助于现场更加精确的管理和控制高炉综合状态,保证炉况稳定顺行。

 

Comprehensive status evaluation and prediction of blast furnace based on cascade system and combined model

Abstract: The comprehensive status of blast furnaces was one of the most important factors affecting their economy, quality, and longevity. The blast furnace comprehensive status had the nature of “black box,” and it was “unpredictable.” In this study, a blast furnace comprehensive status score and prediction method based on a cascade system and a combined model were proposed to address this issue. A dual cascade evaluation system was developed by integrating subjective and objective weighting methods. The analytic hierarchy process, coefficient of variation, entropy weight method, and impart combinatorial games were jointly employed to determine the optimal weight distribution across indicators. Categorized statuses (raw material, gas flow, furnace body, furnace cylinder, and iron–slag) were evaluated. Based on the five categories of the status data, the second cascade was applied to upgrade the quantitative evaluation of the comprehensive status. The weights of the different categories were 0.22, 0.15, 0.22, 0.21, and 0.20, respectively. According to the data analysis, the results of the comprehensive status score closely matched the on-site production logs. Based on the blast furnace smelting period, the maximal information coefficient method was applied to the 100 parameters that were most relevant to the comprehensive status. A combined prediction model for a comprehensive status score was designed using bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) and categorical boosting (CatBoost). The test results indicated that the combined model reduced the mean absolute error by an average of 0.275 and increased the hit rate by an average of 5.65 percentage points compared to BiLSTM or CatBoost alone. When the error range was ±2.5, the combined model predicted a hit rate of 91.66% for the next hour’s comprehensive status score, and its high accuracy was deemed satisfactory for the field. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and regression fitting were applied to analyze the linear quantitative relationship between the key variables and the comprehensive status score. When the furnace bottom center temperature was increased by 10°C, the comprehensive status score increased by 0.44. This method contributes to a more precise management and control of the comprehensive status of the blast furnace on-site.

 

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