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Huicong Xu, Kai Li, Xingping Lai, Pengfei Shan, Bo Zhang, Lianpeng Dai, Shangtong Yang, Qifeng Guo, Xun Xi, and Zhongming Yan, Intelligent prediction method of rockburst driven by microseismic temporal features in deep near-vertical coal seams, Int. J. Miner. Metall. Mater., (2026). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12613-026-3408-7
Huicong Xu, Kai Li, Xingping Lai, Pengfei Shan, Bo Zhang, Lianpeng Dai, Shangtong Yang, Qifeng Guo, Xun Xi, and Zhongming Yan, Intelligent prediction method of rockburst driven by microseismic temporal features in deep near-vertical coal seams, Int. J. Miner. Metall. Mater., (2026). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12613-026-3408-7
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微震时序特征驱动的深部近直立煤层冲击地压智能预测方法

摘要: 冲击地压已成为制约中国煤矿安全生产和优质产能释放的主要灾害之一。在中国天山地震带深部近直立煤层开采过程中,煤岩非线性变形响应与复杂地质条件相互耦合作用,显著提高了冲击地压发生风险。为满足冲击地压危险煤层智能化、安全化和高效开采的战略需求,本文以中国新疆某近直立煤层赋存煤矿为工程背景,融合地球物理、空间统计、大数据挖掘和深度学习方法,系统分析微震活动参数与开采扰动之间的响应关系。在此基础上,提出微震指标时序融合特征识别方法,并将时序约束嵌入深度学习框架,构建增强型时序融合Transformer模型,实现多元微震指标预测;进一步建立由融合微震参数驱动的冲击地压智能预测预警方法,并开展现场应用验证。结果表明,随着工作面推进,夹矸岩柱和B6顶板区域冲击危险性逐渐增强,且夹矸岩柱局部损伤程度高于B6顶板。为增强特征提取能力,创新引入WFTBlock模块,将连续小波变换、傅里叶变换和时间戳对齐相结合,揭示指标序列中频谱特征和相位特征的周期性演化规律。最终,多参数TFT模型通过融合时序特征输入进行联合训练,与长短期记忆网络(LSTM)基准模型相比,所提出模型使RMSE降低47.9%,R2提高54.5%,预测精度显著提升。研究成果可为近直立煤层安全高效开采以及“一带一路”关键能源基地煤炭资源安全开发提供技术支撑。

 

Intelligent prediction method of rockburst driven by microseismic temporal features in deep near-vertical coal seams

Abstract: Rockburst has become a major hazard constraining safe production and high-quality capacity release in China’s coal mines. During deep mining of near-vertical seams within the Tianshan seismic belt, the coupling of nonlinear coal-rock deformation responses with complex geological conditions markedly elevates rockburst risk. To meet the strategic demand for intelligent, safe, and efficient mining in rockburst-prone seams, this study integrates geophysics, spatial statistics, big data mining, and deep learning to investigate a steeply dipping coal mine in Xinjiang, China, and systematically analyze the relationship between microseismic activity parameters and mining-induced disturbances. On this basis, a temporal fusion feature identification method for microseismic indicators is proposed. By embedding temporal constraints into a deep-learning framework, an enhanced temporal fusion transformer (TFT) is developed to predict multiple microseismic indicators. Furthermore, an intelligent rockburst prediction and early-warning approach driven by fused microseismic parameters is established and validated in field applications. Results indicate that hazard risk in the sandwiched rock pillar and the B6 roof areas increases with working-face advance, and the localized damage in the sandwiched rock pillar is more severe than that in the B6 roof. To strengthen feature extraction, a WFTBlock is introduced by combining continuous wavelet transform, Fourier transform, and timestamp alignment to reveal the periodic evolution of spectral and phase characteristics in indicator sequences. The final multi-parameter TFT model is trained jointly with fused features and temporal inputs. Compared with the long short-term memory (LSTM) baseline, the proposed model reduces RMSE by 47.9% and improves R2 by 54.5%, demonstrating substantially enhanced predictive accuracy. Overall, the proposed framework provides technical support for safe and efficient mining of steeply dipping seams and the secure development of key energy bases along the Belt and Road Initiative.

 

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