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Wenxin Li, Dan Ma, Xuefeng Gao, Quanhui Liu, Chuanjiu Zhang, and Baoli Wang, Geology-informed intelligent prediction of aquifer groutability for water-inrush control in mining with an interpretable hybrid deep learning framework, Int. J. Miner. Metall. Mater., (2026). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12613-026-3514-6
Wenxin Li, Dan Ma, Xuefeng Gao, Quanhui Liu, Chuanjiu Zhang, and Baoli Wang, Geology-informed intelligent prediction of aquifer groutability for water-inrush control in mining with an interpretable hybrid deep learning framework, Int. J. Miner. Metall. Mater., (2026). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12613-026-3514-6
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地质信息驱动的含水层可注性混合深度学习可解释智能预测

摘要: 矿井突水灾害注浆防控中,准确预测含水层可注性对提高注浆抗渗能力、减少材料消耗和碳排放具有重要意义。针对现场水文地质数据失真、预测模型泛化能力与可解释性不足等问题,本文分析了涌水量、水压、水位与可注性的非线性映射关系,构建了反映物理意义的参数特征序列,建立了融合双向时间卷积网络、双向门控循环单元和注意力机制的预测架构,形成了小样本水文地质信息约束的可注性智能预测框架,揭示了可注性预测决策机制与水文地质响应关系。结果表明:物理序列、数据增强和混合架构提高了可注性预测模型精度,均方根误差降低了21.6%,缓解了小样本条件下过拟合风险,其性能提升来源于水文地质信息表达增强、样本分布扩展以及多尺度特征协同提取。模型在不同地质条件下均表现出稳定的预测性能,其泛化能力差异与水文地质作用机制变化相关;钻孔涌水量对模型输出具有主导作用,贡献率达到75.4%,通过表征裂隙连通性并参与水位、水压、渗流过程共同控制注浆响应。研究结果可为矿井突水灾害防控与注浆高效决策提供理论依据与技术支持。

 

Geology-informed intelligent prediction of aquifer groutability for water-inrush control in mining with an interpretable hybrid deep learning framework

Abstract: Accurate groutability prediction is essential not only for mine water-inrush prevention, but also for reducing excessive cement consumption and the associated carbon footprint of grouting operations. However, field geological datasets are often small, which limits the reliability and generalization of data-driven models. A geology-informed prediction framework is presented for predicting unit grouting amount (uga) from three routinely measured borehole variables: water inflow rate, hydraulic pressure, and groundwater level. A generative augmentation strategy was employed to expand the training data from 44 to 880 samples, and the input variables were organized into a physically informed feature sequence. Based on this representation, a hybrid deep-learning model integrating a bidirectional temporal convolutional network, a bidirectional gated recurrent unit, and an attention mechanism was developed, with its hyperparameters optimized using the Crested Porcupine Optimizer. The results demonstrate that data augmentation improved the test performance, with the coefficient of determination (R2) increasing from 0.8851 to 0.9293 and the root mean square error (RMSE) decreasing by 21.6%, effectively alleviating overfitting. External validation yielded R2 values of 0.9982, 0.9884, and 0.9272 under identical, similar, and distinct geological settings, respectively. Distribution-shift analysis further highlighted the importance of hydrogeological-mechanism consistency for external generalization. Interpretability analysis using SHapley Additive exPlanations and Accumulated Local Effects indicated that borehole water inflow rate was the dominant predictor, contributing 75.4% to the model output, while high unit grouting amounts were associated with jointly elevated fracture connectivity and hydraulic pressure. The proposed framework provides practical support for accurate uga prediction and material-efficient grouting in intelligent mining.

 

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