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Wenxin Li, Dan Ma, Xuefeng Gao, Quanhui Liu, Chuanjiu Zhang, and Baoli Wang, Geology-informed intelligent prediction of aquifer groutability for water-inrush control in mining with an interpretable hybrid deep learning framework, Int. J. Miner. Metall. Mater., (2026). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12613-026-3514-6
Wenxin Li, Dan Ma, Xuefeng Gao, Quanhui Liu, Chuanjiu Zhang, and Baoli Wang, Geology-informed intelligent prediction of aquifer groutability for water-inrush control in mining with an interpretable hybrid deep learning framework, Int. J. Miner. Metall. Mater., (2026). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12613-026-3514-6
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地质信息驱动的矿山突水治理中含水层可注性智能预测:一种可解释的混合深度学习框架

摘要: 矿井突水防治中,含水层可注性预测是注浆设计和材料用量控制的重要依据。准确预测注浆量有助于提高突水治理效果,减少水泥过量消耗及注浆施工的碳排放。针对现场地质数据样本量小、数据驱动模型泛化能力不足等问题,本文提出一种地质信息约束的注浆量智能预测框架。该框架以钻孔涌水量、水压和地下水位三个常规钻孔参数为输入,采用生成式数据增强方法将训练样本由44组扩展至880组,并依据水文地质作用关系构建具有物理意义的特征序列。在此基础上,建立融合双向时间卷积网络、双向门控循环单元和注意力机制的混合框架,并利用冠豪猪优化算法对超参数进行寻优。结果表明,数据增强后模型测试集决定系数(R2)由0.8851提高至0.9293,均方根误差(RMSE)降低21.6%,过拟合现象得到缓解。外部验证中,模型在相同、相似和差异地质条件下的R2分别为0.9982、0.9884和0.9272,表明其预测性能受水文地质机制一致性影响。可解释性分析表明,钻孔涌水量是关键因素,对模型输出的贡献率为75.4%;高单位注浆量通常与裂隙连通性增强和水压升高共同相关。研究结果可为矿山突水注浆治理中的单位注浆量预测和材料高效利用提供方法支持。

 

Geology-informed intelligent prediction of aquifer groutability for water-inrush control in mining with an interpretable hybrid deep learning framework

Abstract: Accurate groutability prediction is essential not only for mine water-inrush prevention, but also for reducing excessive cement consumption and the associated carbon footprint of grouting operations. However, field geological datasets are often small, which limits the reliability and generalization of data-driven models. A geology-informed prediction framework is presented for predicting unit grouting amount (uga) from three routinely measured borehole variables: water inflow rate, hydraulic pressure, and groundwater level. A generative augmentation strategy was employed to expand the training data from 44 to 880 samples, and the input variables were organized into a physically informed feature sequence. Based on this representation, a hybrid deep-learning model integrating a bidirectional temporal convolutional network, a bidirectional gated recurrent unit, and an attention mechanism was developed, with its hyperparameters optimized using the Crested Porcupine Optimizer. The results demonstrate that data augmentation improved the test performance, with the coefficient of determination (R2) increasing from 0.8851 to 0.9293 and the root mean square error (RMSE) reduced by 21.6%, effectively alleviating overfitting. External validation yielded R2 values of 0.9982, 0.9884, and 0.9272 under identical, similar, and distinct geological settings, respectively. Distribution-shift analysis further highlighted the importance of hydrogeological-mechanism consistency for external generalization. Interpretability analysis using SHapley Additive exPlanations and Accumulated Local Effects indicated that borehole water inflow rate was the dominant predictor, contributing 75.4% to the model output, while high unit grouting amounts were associated with jointly elevated fracture connectivity and hydraulic pressure. The proposed framework provides practical support for accurate uga prediction and material-efficient grouting in intelligent mining.

 

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