Factor analysis and machine learning for predicting endpoint carbon content in converter steelmaking and analyzing factors influencing prediction accuracy

The endpoint carbon content in the converter is critical for the quality of steel products, and accurately predicting this parameter is an effective way to reduce alloy consumption and improve smelting efficiency. However, most scholars currently focus on modifying methods to enhance model accuracy, while overlooking the the extent to which input parameters influence accuracy. To address this issue, in this study, a prediction model for the endpoint carbon content in the converter was developed using factor analysis (FA) and support vector machine (SVM) optimized by improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO). Analysis of the factors influencing the endpoint carbon content during the converter smelting process led to the identification of 21 input parameters. Subsequently, FA was used to reduce the dimensionality of the data and applied to the prediction model. The results demonstrate that the performance of the FA–IPSO–SVM model surpasses several existing methods, such as twin support vector regression and support vector machine. The model achieves hit rates of 89.59%, 96.21%, and 98.74% within error ranges of ±0.01%, ±0.015%, and ±0.02%, respectively. Finally, based on the prediction results obtained by sequentially removing input parameters, the parameters were classified into high-influence (5%–7%), medium-influence (2%–5%), and low-influence (0%–2%) categories according to their varying degrees of impact on prediction accuracy. This classification provides a reference for selecting input parameters in future prediction models for final carbon content.